What if We say No

Charles Grant of the CER is working himself up into a lather over the scary thought that the UK may reject the successful and glorious future that Europe’s finest public servant have graciously offered us.

Only in the United Kingdom do the polls suggest that a majority will vote no. But that vote alone would throw the EU into a constitutional crisis.

Which begs the question. Can an institution without a constitution suffer a constitutional crisis?

Such a development would not bode well for either the EU's future or transatlantic relations. If a messy core emerged within the EU, the United Kingdom and other U.S. allies, such as Poland, would likely wind up outside of it.

It bodes pretty well from where I am standing and I’m sure that many federasts would love to get rid of us. As for transatlantic relations, the USA could then ignore Old Europe and relations with its real allies could then be better than ever.

People from other countries are often puzzled by the fervor of the United Kingdom's hostility to the EU, or its "Euroskepticism."

But then they continue to push for a type of EU that could never be palatable to the UK, and block reform of CAP and other idiocies that add so much ammunition to the Euro Sceptic cause. Ultimately though this hostility is based on media lies:

Popular newspapers claim, for example, that the constitution would force the United Kingdom to give up its seat on the United Nations Security Council; that Brussels bureaucrats would command British troops, control British oil reserves, and regulate British borders; and that the EU would gain new powers to interfere in the U.K. labour market. None of these points is true, but the popular press knows how to frighten people.

To pick on just a couple of points.

Does he really believe that the proposed Foreign Minister would not usurp Britain’s position in the UN or create situations where Britain is unable to use its own troops for its own national interest? These things are implicitly rather than explicitly spelt out in the treaty. As for no new powers to interfere in Britain’s Labour market. He obviously has not read the charter of fundamental rights.

But maybe the media will not be so effective:

Many voters will ultimately look less to the popular press for information on the treaty than to the BBC, which will be more objective. I’m sure our friends Here would have much to say about that.

So ultimately what is our Euro Fanatic scared of?

In the end, this scenario is the one most likely to unfold if the constitution fails the British referendum: the emergence of a "messy core."

They will go on without us. Big Deal.

Economically, a European core dominated by Paris and Berlin would likely lean toward defensive or possibly protectionist economic policies that would not be in Washington's best interests. Most of the union's more dynamic economies-those of the United Kingdom, Poland, and the Nordic and Baltic countries-would be outside the central group.

Without the UK and New Europe, the messy core would become an irrelevance. Who cares if they harmonise their taxes and share some new experiments. As time passes, everyone will ignore them and they will be come to understand their mistake.

Led by Chirac and Schroeder, the core countries would promote a multipolar world, with Europe as one emerging pole. At the same time, the EU's periphery, including the United Kingdom and Poland, would tend toward Atlanticism. With that kind of split foreign policy, Europe could not develop into a more effective strategic actor.

Thank God for that. A foreign policy that puts dictatorships before democracy and is based mainly on doing whatever the USA doesn’t want is not the kind of policy that anyone should wish to be effective. Besides Chirac and Schroeder are both well past their sell by dates, not the kind of people to lead anything. All in all Mr Grant has demonstrated exactly why it would be good for Europe for us to reject the treaty. The idiot crowd will continue on their chosen path to destruction, whilst we can watch from the sidelines. Their saving will come in the realisation that their ideas lead inexorably to decline. So what will happen if we say no? Europe will save itself from a slow but certain death. European’s Unite, you have nothing to lose but your EU Contributions.