Could the Dutch say No?

With all European eyes on the French, its easy to forget that the Dutch have a referendum just days after the French one. Things are not going swimmingly for the Yes side there either.

Polls in the Netherlands are showing a small lead for the ‘no’ campaign – however, a very large bloc of voters remain undecided. The uncertainty has panicked politicians on the ‘yes’ side, who have called on business to do more to mobilise voters.

My gut feeling is that a French No would lead inevitably to a Dutch No, as the scare tactics of Yes campaigners would lose their effectiveness. To lose one referendum would be manageable; to lose two in a row would be a huge setback for ever closer Union.