The War Effect

Many commentators are assuming that the Conservatives won seats based on the War Effect. This strikes me as a little odd considering that The Conservative Party were supporters of the war, despite Mr Howard's later prevarication. My take is somewhat different. Conservative voters previously voted for Tony Blair, rather than for the Labour Party. With the sheen wearing off, they have started to drift back. Tony's loss of authority due to Iraq is a factor, but it is indirect rather than direct. Liberal Democrat gains on the other hand are indeed a result of the war. Their failure to take seats from Conservatives being a piece of evidence backing up this theory. This is why I think the Lib Dems have more to worry about in this result. That is not to say that 33% of the vote is something that Tories should be too happy about, but simply that the one off effects of this issue mostly gained votes for the Yellow, not Blue corner. The really bad news for reactionary right wingers like myself is that large swathes of the country dropped a left wing party to vote for an even further left wing one. That is not a good result.